Modeling the pandemic risk

In this paper, we discuss how to model pandemics such as COVID-19 and give an illustration on U.S. data. We also provide an overview of how to model the future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and explore a basic vector-borne disease model. We describe two models: 

• SIR-type models used to project a number of deaths over a short horizon during a pandemic
• Other types of models used to project mortality over a longer horizon