The estimated funded status of the 100 largest U.S. public pension plans increased from 85.4% as of September 30, 2025, to 86.3% as of October 31, 2025, as measured by the Milliman 100 Public Pension Funding Index (PPFI). This surpasses the highest funded ratio previously recorded in our study—85.5%, set on December 31, 2021—and marks the seventh straight month of funding improvement, the longest run of good news since the 2016 inception of the PPFI.
Figure 1: PPFI funded ratio
We have projected the aggregate funded status forward from October 31, 2025, to October 31, 2026, under three scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes each plan’s future investment returns equal that plan’s current reported interest rate assumption (median rate = 7.0% in this study). The “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios assume each plan’s investment returns are 7% higher and lower, respectively, than that plan’s current reported interest rate assumption.
Figure 2: PPFI funded ratio with projections
During October 2025, the deficit between the estimated plan assets and liabilities decreased from $971 billion at the beginning of the month to $907 billion at the end of the month. In aggregate, we estimate the PPFI plans experienced investment returns of 1.0% in October, with individual plans’ estimated returns ranging from 0.2% to 1.7%. The Milliman 100 PPFI asset value increased from $5.657 trillion as of September 30, 2025, to $5.736 trillion as of October 31, 2025. During October, the plans gained market value of approximately $88 billion, which was offset by a net negative cash flow of approximately $9 billion.
Figure 3: PPFI investment returns
The total pension liability (TPL) continues to grow and stood at an estimated $6.643 trillion as of October 31, 2025, up from $6.628 trillion as of September 30, 2025. Just as pension assets grow over time with investment income and shrink over time as benefits are paid, so too does the TPL grow over time with interest and shrink as benefits are paid. The TPL also grows as active members accrue pension benefits.
Figure 4: PPFI funded status
October’s asset growth saw another plan exceed the 90% funded mark as of October 31, 2025; now 46 plans stand above this benchmark compared to 45 as of September 30, 2025. Meanwhile, at the lower end of the spectrum, 10 plans remain less than 60% funded, a small improvement from 11 plans below this threshold as of September 30, 2025.
Figure 5: Funded ratios at October 31, 2025
About the Public Pension Funding Index
This update is an estimate based on Milliman’s 2024 Public Pension Funding Study and was updated for market returns from June 30, 2024, to October 31, 2025. The 2024 annual study encompasses adjustments made as of June 30, 2024, and reflects updated publicly available asset and liability information gathered for the annual study.