Mortality and Behavioral Analytics

Milliman Life and Annuity Experience Studies

Milliman’s one-stop solution for industry-standard reports.

Milliman Life and Annuity Experience Studies

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The Challenge

Industry studies lack sophisticated platforms to view results

You need big data to benchmark company experience against the industry and to set accurate assumptions. But large-scale reports that aggregate results from the broadest range of participants can lack dynamic capabilities and predictive modeling to view data in a meaningful, actionable way.

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The Solution

View the most complete studies catalog through a dynamic, robust platform

Using Milliman’s comprehensive experience studies, you can closely monitor the emerging industry experience. More than 18 years of data fuel some of our reports, covering more than $1.1 trillion of annuity current account values and $45 trillion of life insurance face amount. Milliman also offers integrated services including assumption reviews, customized model development, and full process management.

An interactive, web-based platform allows you to visualize and download data and predictions from key models, as well as coefficients and model forms of our linear predictive models. The platform is updated as frequently as quarterly as participants send in updated experience data and is annually refreshed with updated models and new insights.

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Discover our full range of industry-leading, in-depth studies

Unique datasets, modeling, and insights to power your business strategy

2025 Variable Annuity Surrender Study
2025 GLWB Utilization and Commencement Study
2024 Milliman RILA Surrender Study
2024 Milliman Fixed Indexed Annuity Surrender Study
2024 Milliman Fixed Indexed Annuity Partial Withdrawals Study
2021 Milliman Variable Annuity Mortality Study
2018 Fixed Indexed Annuity Mortality Study
Milliman Industry Mortality Study & Analysis III (MIMSA III)
Milliman Final Expense Study II (MFES II)

2025 Variable Annuity Surrender Study

Milliman is pleased to present the results of our 2025 variable annuity (VA) surrender study. The 2025 series of studies incorporates seriatim data from 23 companies, representing the bulk of the industry, and comprises more than 110 million contract-years of exposure spanning January 2008 through December 2024.

The behavioral model that we have developed from the study data is described in this report and included in our Recon® platform. We fit a predictive model using industry data for surrender behavior for VA products with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWBs) as well as VA products with no living benefits (No LB). The model is explainable, well-calibrated to the important factors of influence, and readily implementable and extensible in clients’ modeling software—with a 99.2% actual-to-expected ratio against independent test data. As such, this report is a valuable guide to users of our Recon platform as they perform experience studies of their company’s data, explore the industry data on their own, and develop their own customized models.

Our report demonstrates that surrender behavior for VAs is complex and varies with a range of factors corresponding to product and owner characteristics, dynamic relationships with capital market conditions including interest rates, and interrelationships with other elective behaviors, such as utilization of income features. Following are highlights of the study findings:

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INSIGHT

Related insight

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Considerations for predictive modeling in insurance applications

What are the best ways to implement predictive modeling into relevant areas of actuarial practice?

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Implementing Columnar Databases with R

This paper tries to solve the problem where a system or application, built over R, can communicate to a database with massive data volume, residing on a remote system, to retrieve only the chunks of data needed for current analysis to gain scalability and speed by leveraging the data management and querying speed of the databases.

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MIMSA III 2020: Study of Mortality and Lapse Rates in Level Term Life Insurance

This report discusses findings from Milliman’s research on predicting lapse and mortality rates for 10-year and 15-year premium term insurance products from the Milliman Industry Study and Analysis data set.

Milliman Life and Annuity Experience Studies