The Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) of the Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Research Institute recently released the final Pub-2016 Public Retirement Plans Mortality Tables, reflecting the latest mortality trends observed in U.S. public-sector retirement plans. These tables replace the previously published Pub-2010 tables from 2019, with the SOA planning updates approximately every five years. No comments were received on the January 2025 exposure draft of the tables, and no changes were made to the final tables or report from the draft version.
Experience period spanning 2013 to 2019
The experience period for the final Pub-2016 tables spans from 2013 to 2019, drawing on data from 41 public pension systems representing 100 plans. The dataset covers roughly 58 million life years and 774,000 deaths. While seven years of information was collected, experience from 2020 was excluded to avoid distortions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting mortality rates represent one-year probabilities of death as of July 1, 2016, the midpoint of the experience period.
Tables breakdown
The final tables remain gender-specific and categorized by job type (teachers, public safety, and general service employees). Within each job type, the tables are further divided into above- and below-median income groups. Separate tables are provided for employees, retirees, disabled retirees, and contingent survivors in both amount-weighted1 and head-count-weighted formats. The SOA did not develop a combined table for all job types due to the unique mortality characteristics of each job category.
The analysis indicates that within each gender and job classification, salary and benefit amount continue to be strong predictors of mortality differences—consistent with the prior Pub-2010 findings. As a result, RPEC produced above- and below-median tables, noting that teachers show the smallest differences by income, whereas public safety and general service employees show more pronounced differences. Across all job categories, the impact is larger for males than females.
Impact on present values
Table 1 summarizes how the present value of an age 62 deferred annuity changes when moving from the Pub-2010 to the Pub-2016 amount-weighted tables. Except for male public safety members, the final Pub-2016 tables generally result in lower present values, especially at older ages.
Table 1: Change in present values* of age 62 deferred annuity using the Pub-2010 to Pub-2016 tables
* Present values were calculated using the Pub-2010 and Pub-2016 job-specific, amount-weighted mortality tables, projected generationally using scale MP-2021 as of July 1, 2024, with a pre-retirement discount rate of 7.0% and a post-retirement discount rate of 5.0%.
According to the report, head-count-weighted tables show similar changes. Depending on job category and age, present values decline 1.0% to 3.3% for males and decrease 0.3% to 1.4% for females.
Recommended use of the Pub-2016 tables
RPEC advises stakeholders in U.S. public-sector retirement plans to consider using the Pub-2016 tables for measuring pension obligations. As with prior mortality table releases, actuaries may need to modify these base rates to reflect group-specific characteristics and experience. For most pension-related calculations, RPEC believes the mortality rates should be projected with an appropriate improvement scale and generational projection should be considered.
Stakeholders should consult with their actuaries about using these updated tables in accordance with Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOP) No. 27.
1 Amount-weighted rates reflect the impact of income levels on mortality, while head-count-weighted rates provide an average mortality rate for the population, treating all individuals equally.