If the historical relationship between first-quarter and year-end financial results holds, medical professional liability (MPL) writers should be in store for another profitable year. First-quarter direct-written premium declined for the ninth consecutive year, falling to $1.8 billion. The 4.7% decline from the first quarter of 2014 is the largest single-year percentage drop since 2011 and is a full point higher than the average annual decline of 3.7% from 2006 to 2015. First-quarter 2015 development fell in line with that of the past two years.

This article was originally published in the July 2015 issue of the Medical Liability Monitor.